Thursday, July 12, 2012

forex analysis

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As a result of the sanction meted out on the 16 banks found culpable in the “FCMB SAGA” most active banks in the free funds market have shut down their window for fear of the apex bank slamming the big hammer on them.

This development has led to paucity of funds in the free funds market as only quite a few die-hard banks are still playing in the risky market. Also the market is in total confusion as end users are yet to come to terms with the news of the sanctioned banks given that they have had a long-term relationship with the affected banks.

Consequently, given that the supply side has dried up, the market has witnessed a surge in demand, which naturally would have stirred the rate upwards, but surprisingly the reverse is the case. This could be attributed to the traditional month-end, which coincidentally is the year end of most banks as they could not fund some of their customers that rely heavily on free funds and also rate resistance from end users. However, a more important reason is that most end users prefer to fund their transactions with TCs as against free funds which is more expensive.

In view of the fact that free funds accounts for about 75% of the total income of banks involved in it, sooner than later most of the banks that are adopting wait and see attitude will soon return to the scene as their non participation will post a minus to their bottom line.

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Also as certainty returns to the economy, given that the budget has been approved by NASS most importers will exhibit more confidence as they pay their offshore suppliers.

Basically, by mid April the market will definitely readjust itself and the major players that have adopted wait and see attitude will return to the scene to trade actively



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